Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 0.486164 0.564838 0.649656 0.747589 0.857235 0.975893 1.113690
2025-04-06 0.362883 0.463487 0.580136 0.724247 0.896285 1.093832 1.336495
2025-04-13 0.270310 0.379606 0.515740 0.695127 0.922391 1.197680 1.552979
2025-04-20 0.212801 0.328227 0.482341 0.698145 0.986860 1.353717 1.848144
2025-04-27 0.163958 0.279028 0.444048 0.689590 1.035997 1.496656 2.143103
2025-05-04 0.129783 0.243821 0.419292 0.696019 1.106257 1.674973 2.502536
2025-05-11 0.101792 0.211921 0.393964 0.698058 1.170965 1.852893 2.879272
2025-05-18 0.074025 0.173184 0.350660 0.666092 1.181963 1.956666 3.163315
2025-05-25 0.051981 0.138250 0.306381 0.625074 1.173517 2.030962 3.411863
2025-06-01 0.039053 0.117463 0.282928 0.615398 1.213901 2.182849 3.788507
2025-06-08 0.028911 0.099107 0.259933 0.602562 1.247217 2.326608 4.164519
2025-06-15 0.023477 0.090344 0.254773 0.622678 1.340435 2.575335 4.724094
2025-06-22 0.016248 0.073461 0.228269 0.597677 1.352729 2.697236 5.100941
2025-06-29 0.011646 0.061860 0.210853 0.588412 1.393631 2.872383 5.580294
2025-07-06 0.008020 0.051017 0.191904 0.572023 1.418602 3.022177 6.029374
2025-07-13 0.006037 0.045133 0.184670 0.581415 1.496958 3.275037 6.673466
2025-07-20 0.004307 0.038739 0.173722 0.579639 1.551851 3.489403 7.265425
2025-07-27 0.003206 0.034428 0.167887 0.589884 1.634230 3.762772 7.981099
2025-08-03 0.002318 0.030229 0.160839 0.595529 1.707166 4.023787 8.691053
2025-08-10 0.001418 0.024195 0.144207 0.570529 1.706318 4.138960 9.139424
2025-08-17 0.000788 0.018640 0.126247 0.536801 1.679589 4.198939 9.487410
2025-08-24 0.000494 0.015649 0.117748 0.530207 1.718439 4.397136 10.111204
2025-08-31 0.000293 0.012955 0.108967 0.520422 1.747777 4.577264 10.710142